ISSN: 2966-0599

v.2, n.1, 2025 (Janeiro)

METADADOS

DOI: 10.69720/2966-0599.2025.00026

Author 1: Yahaya Kabiru

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Author 2: Yakubu Musa

Biography: Usmanu Danfodiyo University Sokoto

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Author 3: B. Y. Isah

Biography: Usmanu Danfodiyo University Sokoto

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Author 4: Mukhtar Isah Ilyasu

Biography: Umaru Ali Shinkafi Polytechnic Sokoto

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ABSTRACT: This study investigates the effects of oil price fluctuations on Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators from 2015 to 2023, focusing on inflation and economic growth. Utilizing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models, we analyze the short-term and long-term impacts of variables such as Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices, exchange rates, money supply, interest rates, and economic uncertainties. Results reveal significant short-term effects of oil price increases on inflation and GDP, with asymmetric influences observed in exchange rate movements. The long-term analysis confirms cointegration relationships but underscores slow adjustment speeds for inflation and GDP equilibrium. Recommendations include strengthening monetary policy, stabilizing the exchange rate, and adopting strategies to mitigate oil price volatility’s adverse effects.

Keywords: Oil Price Fluctuations, ARDL, NARDL, Macroeconomic Indicators, Nigeria, Inflation